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reforms are hastily adopted, methods of procedure are ill-considered, experiments result in costly failures. Consequently the Imperial and all the Provincial Treasuries are in debt. The country, financially, is in a bad way. The Chinese Government has muddled through somehow up to now, and I have no doubt will continue to do the same, unless by chance they fall foul of some foreign. Power, in which case they will immediately come to grief. It behoves foreign Powers to deal fairly with the Chinese Government, at the same time China should be beld strictly to her obligations. At the moment she ignores the Treaties and pursues her own sweet way. Undoubtedly there are dangers ahead on the international horizon; time alone can tell what the upshot will be. The Japanese are pouring all over this country in great numbers and establishing themselves throughout the Empire. In years to come there may be danger in this direction, but not yet.
The Opium Edicts.-I am as yet unable to state what is likely to be the result of the Opium Edicts. The Chinese have become possessed with a wave of enthusiasm, and with a great flourish of trumpets announced the cessation of the trade throughout the Empire. Viceregal Proclamations were issued in Tien-tsin ordering the closing of all opium dens within one month. That period has long since passed, and the time has now been extended to Chinese New Year. It remains to be seen whether the Proclamation will take effect on that date. Since the first Imperial Edicts the Chinese Government has awakened to the fact that there will be about 20,000,000 taels (3,000,0007.) of revenue to be replaced. Their treasuries are depleted, and they are unable to arrange without careful consideration for the replacing of this revenue. would not surprise me, therefore, if the carrying out of the Government's decision should be delayed to some later date. Locally the Taotai wrote to the Council asking us to immediately close all opium shops in the Settlement. A reply was sent stating that when the Council was satisfied that the Chinese authorities had closed the shops under the native jurisdiction the Council would immediately follow suit.
It
In this connection you will probably remember that Imperial Edicts were issued abolishing flogging and torture in judicial procedure through the country. The only place where the Edict has been made effective is inside the foreign Settlement in the Mixed Court. Consequently the criminals are free to ply their trade, and we have We do not wish this experiment repeated in Shanghae no means of repressing them. in connection with the opium trade. It yet remains to be seen how far the Government are influenced by genuine motives of reform, and how far they are actuated by a desire to head off the foreign trade.
February 8, 1907.
The political situation becomes steadily worse. I cannot imagine what possesses the officials in Peking that causes them to adopt the tactics which have been adopted since the year 1840 and before. That there will be a general outbreak against foreigners like the Boxer rising I still disbelieve. At the same time there is undoubtedly a wide revolutionary movement ou foot and a spirit of restlessness abroad. There are rumours of large importation of arms from Japan. I am still of opinion that this movement can be disregarded-that is to say, that it does not have a ghost of a chance against the Government forces. The danger is that the Chinese Government will push its present policy to extremes, until the breaking point has been reached, and China involved in war with some Western Power. There seems to be an unalterable determination to exclude foreigners at all costs. The most innocent trading scheme is immediately blocked if it is known that a foreigner is connected with it. This state of affairs cannot of course go on indefinitely. If the Chinese Government were only persuaded that the foreign Powers were acting without international jealousies and as à unit, and that it will be prepared to bring pressure upon China to compel her to fulfil her obligations, there would be an immediate clearing of the political atmosphere.
February 25, 1907.
Referring once again to the political situation in China, I desire to add the following observations :----
Yesterday I was conversing with an English gentleman of high rank in the Customs service employed on Treaty revision work, who informed me that a
diplomatic Secretary in one of the Legations in Peking visiting him within the last few days had stated that all the Legations in Peking viewed with the greatest concern the present situation, and that all the indications corresponded very closely with those obtaining
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before the Boxer outbreak. These remarks coincide with those reported to you by me recently as coming from Dr. Timothy Richard.
Every one who pays any attention to the tendency of current events is impressed with the fact that a dangerous situation is arising. There are many conflicting theories of course, but there is a general expectation that "something" is going to happen.
There are three general ideas in the minds of foreigners. Each has its own advocates. They are (1) that another outbreak similar to the Boxer outbreak is imminent; (2) that a revolution is on the point of breaking out; (3) that the tendency of the present movements is towards another foreign war. I comment briefly on these three points, but would point out the fact that it is notoriously the "unexpected" that happens in China, and that any or all of these opinions may be wrong. I should not like to be held closely to any of them, and it is quite possible that a complete change may come over the situation even before this letter reaches your hands, which would require a modification. I can only write you as things seem to present themselves at the moment. I say seem because appearances in this country are often exceedingly deceptive. Changes occur with almost kaleidoscopic rapidity in Peking, and those now in power may be disgraced and in obloquy in a few weeks or months, and those at present degraded and reprimanded take their places at the top of the ladder. Another set of conditions might then conceivably prevail.
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1. The probability of another Boxer Outbreak.I have reported to you more than once the opinion which has been held by many foreigners for several years past that another attempt will be made on the part of the Chinese to complete the work they attempted in 1900, but which they then failed to carry out. In 1900 two Manchus- namely, Kang I and Yung Lo-guided the course of Empire to disaster. There were others who aided and abetted the movement, especially Prince Tuan and Yu Hsien. All these have paid the penalty with their lives.
In my own personal opinion I should consider it to be impossible that the Government in Peking, especially the Empress Dowager, should have forgotten the lesson taught so recently as six years ago. It seems incredible that the Government would attempt the repetition of any such movement.
The Boxer bands were primarily anti-dynastic, but the Government skilfully turned the blows from themselves to foreigners, and practically adopted the bands as a patriotic Association formed in defence of the Empire, their policy and acts being directed from the Palace itself.
I cannot bring myself to believe that the reactionary officials, ignorant as they are, are so foolish as to attempt to permit another outbreak of the nature of the Boxer movement against foreigners. There are supposed to be something like 80,000 foreign- drilled troops in North China, and it is absolutely certain that if the Government attempt to wipe out foreigners from China they are in a position to do so. They could kill every white man, woman, and child in North China before any relief could reach them, but of course a terrible retribution would follow. There is no doubt that the condition of the troops, as described by certain correspondents, has been grossly exaggerated. There has been some improvement in the drill, but probably no improvement in the weapons. It yet remains to be seen whether the leadership and discipline would give any better results to the Chinese Government in actual war than those obtained in 1900. They would therefore present no very great obstacle to a second capture of Peking.
I cannot bring myself to believe that there is any probability of another outbreak like that of the Boxer, but I may be mistaken. Subsequent events alone will prove.
2. Revolution.Recently the Empress issued an Edict that all class distinctions between Chinese and Manchus were to be abolished. This was very good as far as it went. It has, however, been followed up by a substitution of Manchus for Chinese in a great number of important offices. One notices on all hands an increase in the number of Manchu officials, not only in the higher ranks but in the lower offices, which formerly were almost entirely in the hands of Chinese. This step is naturally commented with resentment by large numbers of Chinese, especially by those in
upon official and literary circles, who are thus deprived of preferment.
In addition to the facts above related, the revolutionary cause has been more popular through several other developments, amongst them-perhaps the most important is the new spirit of education which is abroad in the land. 20,000 students have gone to foreign countries, chiefly to Japan, where they have
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